Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
