Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
